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F e a t u r e s E d i t o r : D a l e S t r o k

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d s t r o k @ c o m p u t e r. o r g

E

mployment prospects for software de-

velopers are looking up. There’s a

greater number of developer positions

globally than there are qualified soft-

ware engineers to fill them. This gap

will continue to increase as the number

of available jobs increases. Meanwhile, re-

maining fears on the part of some students and

their parents about IT job security after the

dot-com fallout—while unwarranted—are

negatively affecting software engineering en-

rollments, which will also temporarily widen

the gap. In addition, fears surrounding out-

sourced SE jobs might be unfounded, as these

are often lower-level positions in which soft-

ware engineers wouldn’t be interested.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics forecasts

that increases in software engineer employ-

ment will be higher than average, despite re-

cent downward market trends (www.bls.gov/

k12/print/computer04.htm). However, this

growth won’t match that of the 1990s because

the industry has matured and outsourcing has

increased. Regardless, between 2002 and 2012,

software engineering will be one of the fastest-

growing professions, according to the bureau.

The bureau reports that in 2004, 460,000

applications software engineers and 340,000

systems software engineers were employed in

the US. It projects a 48 percent increase in the

former and a 30 percent increase in the latter

by 2014 (www.bls.gov/emp/emptab21.htm).

Job growth doesn’t, however, reflect the

number of available jobs; the supply of soft-

ware engineers won’t keep pace with that

number. The gap between supply and demand

will widen through 2012, says Donald Bagert,

Director of Software Engineering at the Rose-

Hulman Institute of Technology.

The 2005 and 2006 graduate figures will be

low because students opted out of SE enroll-

ment after the 2001 dot-com fallout, Bagert

says. But this phase of declining enrollments is

leveling off. Most people believe that we’ve

bottomed out in the US, he adds.

Salaries might be one sign of a tightening

job market. The National Association of Col-

leges and Employers (www.naceweb.org) fall

2004 and 2005 Salary Surveys report that the

average starting US salary offer for software

design and development positions in 2005 was

US$51,596, up from $51,361 in 2004.

India continues be the leading offshore IT

destination, says Deependra Moitra, a Banga-

lore-based software executive (see the “Off-

shoring Trends” sidebar). One driver is the rel-

atively low base pay for software engineers.

According to a November 2005 press release

from Mercer Human Resource Consulting

(www.mercerhr.com/pressrelease/details.jhtml

?idContent=1201340), the average annual

base pay for software engineers in India is

equivalent to US$10,300.

Between now and 2010, India will see a

growing increase in the number of available SE

jobs, says Moitra. However, the gap between

available jobs and suitable employees will

widen. This is despite the fact that Indian SE

employment is rising, he adds.

India employs 600,000 people in the soft-

March/April 2006

ware industry but falls short of meeting

demand, says Moitra. Reflecting the

current demand, IT industry salaries in-

crease by about 15 to 18 percent annu-

ally, according to Moitra; within those

figures, software developers receive

some of the highest raises.

SE is the hottest profession in China

based on demand, says Dehua Ju, vice

president of the Shanghai Software In-

dustry Association. He notes that

720,000 software employees are work-

ing in China today.

Reflecting this trend, the average

salary for Chinese IT professionals rose

7 to 8 percent in 2005; the average an-

nual salary of SE college undergradu-

ates was 3,000 yuan (US$370), up 500

yuan ($62) from 2004, says Ju.

While software companies in China

are looking more to Chinese university

graduates to fill their increasing need

for developers, only 90 percent of the

top universities’ graduates are being

hired, says Ju, because the others aren’t

qualified.

To mitigate the gap between jobs and

available talent, the Chinese Education

Ministry decided in 2001 to build 35 pi-

lot software institutes, each of which

plans to recruit 500 BS students per year

and offer SE MS degrees. By the end of

2003, those institutes had enrolled

30,597 students (17,194 BS and 13,403

MS), according to Ju.

In 2003 and 2004, 25,000 software

engineers were employed in Ireland,

down from 32,000 in 2001, says Robert

Cochran, principal consultant for Cata-

lyst Software. This represents a 22 per-

cent decrease. The fact that the figures

were the same for 2003 and 2004 might

indicate that the downward trend has

leveled off. These figures represent a sig-

nificant part of Ireland’s population,

which is four million. If the US had the

same proportion of software developers

India is still king of IT offshoring destinations. According

to India’s National Association of Software and Service Com-

panies, the country captured an estimated 44 percent of the

offshoring market for software and back-office services in fis-

cal year 2004–2005; the associated revenues were US$17.2

billion (www.nasscom.org/artdisplay.asp?Art_id=4377). In

addition to the US, European and Japanese companies are

offshoring to India, says Deependra Moitra, a Bangalore-

based software executive. Countries competing with India

for a slice of the overall offshoring market include China,

Canada, Mexico, Russia, and some eastern European coun-

tries such as the Czech Republic, Poland, and Bulgaria,

Moitra says.

Indian companies are also offshoring their operations.

“They have their operations in China, and many Chinese

companies are also operating in places like Bangalore,”

says Moitra.

The Chinese government has released a series of special

policies to encourage Chinese companies to provide out-

sourcing services and to encourage foreign companies to

outsource more work to China, according to Dehua Ju, vice

president of the Shanghai Software Industry Association.

These policies have stimulated high growth in the amount of

work offshored to China, Ju says.

Japan is 61 percent of China’s outsourcing market, says Ju.

The US and EU markets constitute less than 15 percent, which

forces China to focus on breakthroughs in those markets.

For that reason, in November 2003, the Torch Center, a

high-tech development program started by the Chinese Min-

istry of Science and Technology, launched the China Off-

shore Software Engineering Project, says Ju. He states that

the project’s goal is to help service providers learn to im-

prove their outsourcing business with the US and EU.

In 2004, the Chinese Ministry of the Information Industry

announced six state software export bases: Shanghai, Dalian,

Shenzhen, Tianjin, Xian, and Beijing. The government will pro-

vide these bases with policies and special support to promote

their outsourcing business, according to Ju. Also, to improve

the software industry’s image, Chinese software enterprises

have rushed to achieve ISO9000 and CMM certifications,

says Ju.

Argentina is also rising as an offshoring destination. For

example, Intel is going to open a software development fac-

tory in the province of Cordoba. Cordoba promised Intel a 7.5

percent subsidy for salaries over eight years and US$1.5 mil-

lion for building the lab, according to NewsFactor Magazine

Online (www.newsfactor.com/story.xhtml?story_id=39805).

In Ireland, US-owned companies provide approximately

50 percent of software industry employment, according to

Robert Cochran, principal consultant for Catalyst Software.

This is an effect of Ireland successfully marketing itself as a

base for those companies’ European operations. The largest

single operation there is the Microsoft EMEA (Europe, Middle

East, and Africa) headquarters.

Still, Donald Bagert, Director of Software Engineering at

the Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology, contends that much

of the US market’s offshoring is for jobs that software engi-

neers with four-year degrees wouldn’t take, such as computer

programming. But the US does need software architects, says

Bagert. “The question is whether the public at large really re-

alizes that.”

People who are getting computer science and SE degrees

aren’t having much trouble getting a good job in the US, ac-

cording to Bagert, especially if it’s a good computer science

program.

“Our students are getting good jobs and salaries. With

the software engineering graduates at Rose, we had 100

percent employment at the time of graduation,” he says.

to population, it would have 2.36 mil-

lion developers—almost three times the

actual number.

Nevertheless, the employment talent

gap in computer science and SE is grow-

ing in Ireland, with as many as 8,000

job vacancies, Cochran says. This is de-

spite the fact that the number of IT job

openings increased by as much as 40

percent in 2005, he adds.

This growing gap is partly because

the dot-com fallout greatly reduced the

number of students opting to take IT-

related courses in Irish universities, which

is now causing a shortfall in the number

of qualified IT graduates, says Cochran.

Ireland is taking steps to increase en-

rollment in computer science and SE

courses. Cochran states that “both the

government and industry and profes-

sional associations are running pro-

grams aimed at restoring interest in

technology careers in general and in

computer science and software engi-

neering in particular, in an attempt to

encourage more students back into

computer science and software engi-

neering courses.” However, “this only

benefits the industry three to four years

after the [enrollment] increases, when

they graduate,” he notes.

Despite the shortfall in qualified IT

graduates, by mid-2005 software devel-

oper base salaries were down from

previous years to about 40,000 euros

(US$48,000) per year, according to

Cochran. “New graduates straight out

of college were getting on average about

23,000 euros to start (US$27,500),”

says Cochran. Average salaries will tend

to grow more slowly or even decrease

when companies are in difficulty—for

example, during the recent slump, he

says.

An interesting factor in the Irish SE

employment market is migration. “We

have never met our own demand, and

have generally used migration as a mar-

ket regulator,” says Cochran.

“Migration in and out is a long-term

feature of the Irish labor market in gen-

eral,” he says; “we have a fluid software

labor market, with flows between … the

local industry sectors, and into and out

of Ireland itself.” Migration out of the

country isn’t due primarily to local job

circumstances but rather because some

people will always be attracted to op-

portunities in large economies such as

the US, according to Cochran.

Local demand does, however, affect

the influx of software developers into

Ireland. And, with the European Union’s

expansion in 2004 to include 10 addi-

tional countries, Ireland has a much

larger available labor market externally,

says Cochran. “Some of the new EU

member states with good technical

“Software Jobs Are Going Unfilled,” Waterford News and Star, 20 Jan. 2006;

www.waterford-news.com/news/story.asp?j=20517—This newspaper article

looks at the Irish software job market.

S. Bradshaw, “Looking inside the Hot Jobs on the Market Today,” Poughkeepsie

Journal, 29 Jan. 2006; www.poughkeepsiejournal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/

article?AID=/20060129/BUSINESS/601290344—This article includes spe-

cific data about software jobs.

www.developers.net—This site provides resources and a job board for software

developers.

www.ieee.org—This site provides career information and a job board for soft-

ware developers and other engineers.

John Vlissides died at his home on 24 November 2005 after battling a brain

tumor for more than a year and a half.

John was an IBM Research staff member since 1991 and a member of the IBM

Academy of Technology since 1998. To the computer science world, he was best

known for his part in creating the field of software patterns. His first book, Design

Patterns (Addison-Wesley, 1995), coauthored with Erich Gamma, Richard Helm,

and Ralph Johnson (known in the field as the “Gang of Four” or “GoF”), has

sold over 350,000 copies in a dozen languages and is recognized as the semi-

nal work on the topic. It has ranked among the top 50 computer science books at

Amazon.com for nearly a decade and has served as the basis for innumerable

courses in most major undergraduate computer science curricula. This led to a se-

ries of books for which John served as consulting editor for Addison-Wesley. John

and the rest of the Gang of Four recently received the ACM S

IGPLAN

Programming

Languages Achievement Award for their work on design patterns.

Capping off his impressive list of accomplishments for the object-oriented soft-

ware community, John served as general chair of the 2004 ACM Conference on

Object-Oriented Programming, Systems, Languages, and Applications (O

OPSLA

04), running a successful conference even while undergoing chemotherapy and

fighting his disease.

The essence of John’s greatness wasn’t in his technical accomplishments—

it was in his humanity. John was a pleasure to work with. He was a friend, a

teacher, and a colleague to us all. In the end, John faced death much the way

he faced life: with strength, dignity, and courage. John’s family has asked that

any contributions in his name go to his favorite charity, the Children’s Cancer

Fund (www.childrenscancerfund.org). In addition, his worldwide friends have

created a wiki to collect stories and memories of him—please feel free to con-

tribute at http://c2.com/cgi/wiki?JohnVlissides.

—Brent Hailpern

March/April 2006

pedigrees are ripe sources of labor—for

example, Hungary, the Czech Repub-

lic, and Estonia,” he adds.

In the past few years, the number

of IT students in South America has

been on the rise, particularly in Brazil,

according to Kathy Mandelstein, the

IBM Software Group’s director of in-

dependent software vendor and devel-

oper relations.

According to the 2005 IDC World-

wide Professional Developer Model,

by Stephen Hendrick and Dennis By-

ron, Latin America had approximately

873,500 software developers at the end

of 2005. The model predicts the num-

ber of software developers to grow to

nearly 1.3 million by the end of 2009.

As an aside, Argentina is producing

top-quality software engineers. For ex-

ample, Sergio Sancho, the Google Code

Jam 2004 winner, is a Universidad de

Buenos Aires computer science student

codejamwinners.html). Also, a team from

UBA ranked 12th in the ACM 2003 In-

ternational Collegiate Programming Con-

test and was the Latin America regional

champion (http://icpc.baylor.edu/past/

icpc2003/Finals/Standings03.pdf).

Developer salaries in Canada have re-

mained relatively flat, but this is slowly

changing. “It’s looking like 2006 is shap-

ing up to be a much better year for de-

velopers than it has been for the past five

years,” says Curtis Gittens, senior re-

search analyst at Info-Tech Research

Group, a Canadian IT research firm.

According to the Robert Half Tech-

nology 2006 Salary Guide (www.

downloads/rht2006s_guide.pdf), Cana-

dian software engineers’ starting salaries

are forecast to increase 3.2 percent from

2005 to 2006. According to the same

data, 2005 salaries ranged from

Can$57,250 to $84,000 (US$50,141 to

$73,570); 2006 salaries are expected to

range from Can$58,750 to $87,000

(US$51,455 to $76,197).

According to Gittens, baby boomers

filled most technology jobs 20 years

ago and have held onto them. As these

baby boomers—a high-population gen-

eration—leave these positions, the fol-

lowing generations—smaller in popula-

tion—can’t fill them all, says Gittens. In

response, IT programs will aggressively

recruit women to help make up the

shortfall; “we are already starting to see

this,” he states. In the interim, Cana-

dian companies might fill some posi-

tions from outside the country.

Canadian universities turn out just

over 5,000 computer science graduates

per year (developers also come from

among the self-taught and from vendor

certification programs). Students who

enrolled at the peak of dot-com success

and graduated in 2003 and 2004 are

meeting the current SE demand. How-

ever, fewer students enrolled in com-

puter science or SE programs after the

dot-com fallout in 2001, so there will

also be fewer graduates after 2004 to

fill these positions.

As companies continue to innovate,

the remaining supply of software engi-

neers will dry up, says Gittens. But,

with SE employment increasing, stu-

dents will go to universities to make

sure they get high-paying jobs, he con-

cludes. So, although the supply of soft-

ware engineers will dry up initially, it

will eventually increase again.

M

oitra, Bagert, and Gittens agree

that upward and downward trends

in the SE profession are cyclic and

not unusual. However, the overall de-

mand for software engineers will con-

tinue to increase globally, outpacing in-

creases in the supply of good developers

for at least the next eight years.

Rapid growth in the number of avail-

able SE jobs is the primary reason for

this gap between the demand for devel-

opers and the supply. Other factors are

giving way or don’t have as much impact

as they might seem to. Fears about em-

ployability after the dot-com fallout are

fading. And, while in many countries,

more jobs appear to be moving abroad,

most of these countries will see the num-

ber of available domestic openings out-

pace domestic developer numbers.

James E. Tomayko died on 9 January 2006 after a long illness. He was 56.

Known as “Coach” to his friends, students, and colleagues, James worked at

Carnegie Mellon University for more than 16 years. He was a teaching profes-

sor in the university’s School of Computer Science and director emeritus of its

Master in Software Engineering program. He also initiated a successful distance

learning program and was a part-time senior member of the technical staff at

the university’s Software Engineering Institute. He previously led the Academic

Education Project at the SEI, creating courses on managing software develop-

ment and overviews of software engineering that are still some of the most widely

distributed in the SEI Academic Series. Earlier in his career, James founded the

software engineering graduate program at Wichita State University in Wichita,

Kansas.

James pursued many interests. He was especially interested in the history of

technology, researching and publishing on the topic and serving on the editor-

ial staff of IEEE Annals of the History of Computing. James was also active in

alumni affairs at CMU.

As a testament to his dedication to the university, James received the “Coach”

award, established in his honor, last summer at the Master in Software Engi-

neering program’s 15th anniversary celebration.

James is survived by his wife, Laura, two children, Gabriela and Alison, and

brother, Jack. The family asks that any contributions be made to the Jim Tomayko

Memorial Fund, c/o Inst. for Software Research Int’l, Carnegie Mellon Univ., 5000

Forbes Ave./Wean Hall 5321, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3890.